The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen and potentially become the most powerful on record by 2027, leading to an increased likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated at a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any previous occurrences monitored over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency revealed that its projections indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This high level of certainty is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO. A severe El Niño can have a significant impact on global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially exacerbating extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, highlighting the rapid intensification observed. El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, caused by weakened trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, leading to severe weather conditions like heavy rains and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates that the El Niño event will peak later this year but will continue to impact global temperatures into 2027. As a result, WMO Secretary-General Saulo emphasized the organization’s heightened preparedness efforts and early warning systems to mitigate potential risks.
In response to the escalating situation, Saulo expressed the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian sector to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. The organization aims to equip stakeholders with the necessary insights to navigate the evolving climate challenges posed by the intensifying El Niño event.
