Sir John Curtice has suggested that Kemi Badenoch is not widely recognized by the public and highlighted the Conservative Party’s track record of failing to address immigration concerns. He mentioned that the public’s support for the Tories declined due to issues like Partygate and Liz Truss’s unsuccessful mini-budget. Curtice also expressed doubts about Badenoch’s ability to prevent the party’s support from diminishing further. In an interview with the Mirror before the Tory party conference in Manchester, Curtice raised questions about whether another leader could fare better, emphasizing the importance of charisma in leadership.
Recent insights from Curtice follow a YouGov MRP poll forecasting only 45 seats for the Tories in the upcoming general election. He pointed out that despite being the party responsible for delivering Brexit, the Tories are not significantly more popular among Brexit supporters than Remain voters.
Regarding Badenoch’s handling of challenges posed by Nigel Farage and Reform, Curtice stated that she has struggled to make a positive impact on the public. He highlighted the emergence of Reform as a significant threat to the Tories, making it challenging for them to assert their belief in a diverse society while criticizing Farage.
Curtice suggested that Badenoch’s conference speech could serve as an opportunity for her to introduce herself to the public, but he emphasized the significant difficulty the Tories face in making a comeback in the upcoming elections. He noted that the main issue with Badenoch’s popularity lies in her lack of visibility among the general public, despite being well-regarded by Conservative activists.
Curtice also mentioned the tough task of competing with Reform on immigration, citing the Tories’ reputation for not fulfilling promises on this issue. He highlighted the challenge of adopting a tougher stance than Reform while maintaining trust in the party’s ability to deliver on immigration matters.
