Ryanair’s recent decision to eliminate certain key routes in Spain and reduce flight frequencies on other routes could potentially lead to an increase in ticket prices, as per a report. The budget airline confirmed the closure of its base in Santiago de Compostela and the suspension of flights from Vigo and Tenerife North. These actions were attributed to Spain’s airport operator Aena announcing a 6.5% hike in passenger fees by 2026.
In addition to these changes, Ryanair is also maintaining the closure of its bases in Valladolid and Jerez, while reducing capacity in Asturias, Santander, Zaragoza, and the Canary Islands for the upcoming winter season. These adjustments are part of Ryanair’s strategy to decrease its capacity by 41% in Spanish regions and by 10% in the Canary Islands. CEO Eddie Wilson expressed concerns about the impact on investment, connectivity, tourism, and employment in regional Spain due to potentially unprofitable routes.
Amidst the focus on the disagreement with Aena, the primary concern for travelers is the potential rise in fares and the timing to book alternative flights. Analysis by Dot Dot Loans indicates that historically, when low-cost carriers like Ryanair reduce capacity, fares on affected routes typically surge by 20-30% within a month or two. This surge is attributed to a decrease in supply leading to higher prices for passengers.
Past instances, such as Ryanair’s 2024 cuts in Germany following tax increases, resulted in immediate fare hikes of 10-20% on affected routes due to limited availability. While competitors like easyJet or Vueling may cater to some demand, initial scarcity often triggers short-term price spikes before stabilization occurs.
The analysis forecasts that ticket prices on affected routes could rise from the current £55-£60 range to £80-£85 by October. Waiting to book flights could potentially cost families an additional £50-£200 per ticket due to increased financial pressure. Passengers are advised to secure alternative options promptly to avoid the price surge, especially for popular travel dates like Christmas and New Year’s.
Flexibility in travel plans may yield deals as competitors might introduce promotions to attract Ryanair’s market share, potentially leading to short-term fare reductions of 10-15%. Off-peak travel is less impacted, and last-minute sales may emerge if demand softens. The decision to book now or wait depends on individual risk tolerance and flexibility in travel dates.
