A recent peer-reviewed study indicates that cocoa production is facing a significant threat from heavy rainfall, contrary to the commonly perceived risks of heat and drought. The study, led by environmental fellow Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University, highlights the adverse impact of excessive rain on cocoa cultivation.
In recent years, cocoa prices have surged, with a tonne now priced around $6,000 US, a substantial increase from the $2,000 to $3,000 US range seen since 2014. The spike in prices in 2024, exceeding $12,000 US, was attributed to various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, the world’s leading cocoa-producing region with over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, noted the challenges posed by heavy rainfall on cocoa harvesting. While climate change exacerbates extreme rainfall events, the study suggests potential mitigation strategies to safeguard cocoa production, a crop enjoyed by billions worldwide.
The research, focusing on Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer globally, emphasized the impact of extreme rainfall during flowering on cocoa yields. Excessive rain can harm delicate cocoa flowers and pods, leading to lower productivity and increased fungal infections like black pod disease.
The study also highlighted a clear climate signal indicating that warmer air can hold more moisture, intensifying heavy rain events during the wet season. Despite the risk of extreme rain, West Africa is currently facing the threat of drought due to the El Niño phenomenon.
Apart from climate-related risks, the study underscored non-climactic challenges such as aging trees and illegal gold mining, which further jeopardize cocoa production. Experts recommend interventions like fungicide use and improved drainage systems to mitigate fungal diseases exacerbated by heavy rain.
Agyare emphasized the need for substantial infrastructure investments to address challenges faced by cocoa farmers, such as inadequate drainage systems and post-harvest processing. The study’s findings raise concerns about the future of smallholder cocoa farmers in West Africa, with shifting climate conditions making cocoa farming less attractive.
In response to the escalating challenges, major companies like Nestlé are exploring alternatives to cocoa in chocolate production. By partnering with cocoa-free chocolate startups, these companies aim to develop more resilient supply chains using alternative ingredients like sunflower seeds.
Despite the rising prices of cocoa, experts warn that the current model of chocolate production, reliant on underpriced cocoa, is unsustainable and detrimental to smallholder farmers in West Africa. The need for sustainable solutions to protect cocoa farmers and ensure a stable chocolate supply chain is becoming increasingly urgent.
